中国链接 Chinese Connection by 马千里

Edited by Mariusz Ozminkowski   Pasadena, California      
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VOICES & POLEMICS ON CHINA 声音 / 辩论
No.20. January 2012

What is the Chinese language?
Johnson on Language.  The Economist.

I HAVE exercised Chinese commenters with a few posts that were seen as either simplistic or biased. So let me offer two competing visions of Chinese that help explain what the two sides disagree on. These are archetypes which few partisans may agree with every word of. But they are the basic poles of thinking about Chinese, I think. I submit them for the good of commenters, who should debate them to shreds.

In brief, Chinese traditionalists believe

1) Chinese is one language with dialects.
2) Chinese is best written in the character-based hanzi system.
3) All Chinese read and share the same writing system, despite speaking in different ways.

Western linguists tend to respond

1) Chinese is not a language but a family; the "dialects" are not dialects but languages.
2) Hanzi-based writing is unnecessarily difficult; the characters do not represent "ideas" but "morphemes" (small and combinable units of meaning, like the morphemes of any language). Pinyin (the standard Roman system) could just as easily be used for Chinese. Puns, wordplay and etymology might be sacrificed, but ease of use would be enhanced.
3) Modern hanzi writing is basically Mandarin with the old characters in a form modified by the People's Republic. Everyone else (Cantonese speakers, say) must either write Mandarin or significantly alter the system to write their own "Chinese".

There are so many arguments packed into these two ideas that it's hard to start, much less finish, in a blog post. Since I'm (really) on holiday, I'll leave it to commenters to enlighten each other, and me on my return.

World Starts To Worry As Chinese Economy Hiccups
From NPR, December 2, 2011

Not long ago, economists and others expressed concerns that China's economy was expanding too quickly. Now, the latest data are raising concerns about a slowdown — and the woes it could trigger.

With a sluggish U.S. economy and troubles in the eurozone, Chinese exports are taking a hit, causing a slowdown on shop floors in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Earlier this week, the Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to its lowest level in nearly three years.

At the same time, it looks like China's commercial real estate bubble may be bursting, with property values in some cities already declining.

China's officials are concerned. Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao earlier this week called the current crisis in Europe "more serious and challenging" than the one triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. With an eye toward propping up Chinese export markets, he called on global policymakers to stimulate demand.

Global Impact

It's not just a problem for China. In an interconnected global economy, what's bad for China is likely to be bad for everyone else.

In recent years, China has emerged as the biggest player in commodities. It consumes half of the world's cement, iron ore and coal and a significant share of a long list of other raw materials. As a result, commodities producers such as Australia, Brazil and Canada as well as the oil-exporting nations of Africa are likely to feel the biggest and most immediate pinch, says Alistair Thornton, a Beijing-based China analyst for IHS Global Insight.

"Although China doesn't buy much directly from the EU or the U.S., the indirect impact for a slowing China is fairly significant," Thornton said. "Australia, for example, buys quite a lot from the EU and U.S. So, there's a significant indirect link."

There's also likely to be an effect for countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, said Eswar Prasad, who studies international trade and economics at the Brookings Institution.

"It could also affect a lot of Asian economies that are supplying goods to China partly for final demand and partly for onward export to Europe and the United States," he said. A slowdown in China "hurts the commodities exporters and it hurts those who are providing inputs to China for eventual export to the West."

China is Australia's No. 1 trading partner, and that dependence has caused considerable hand-wringing among politicians in Canberra. In the past year, China has also supplanted the U.S. as Thailand's largest market, including for such exports as computers and electronic parts, rubber and chemicals.

Household Income

But a cooling off in Chinese exports is just part of the problem.

Prasad explains that Chinese officials acted starting in the last half of 2010 to tamp down inflation by putting the brakes on lending and bringing the property market under control.

"Instead, what seems to be happening is that because of tighter credit conditions as well as weak external demand, we have seen a slowdown in manufacturing, which is not ideal from their point of view," he said.

Policymakers in Beijing sought to reverse course this week, announcing Wednesday that they would lower the amount that banks needed to keep in reserve, thus freeing up cash for new loans.

Meanwhile, China, Prasad said, has been trying to boost domestic household demand — partly as a hedge against cooling export demand and partly as a way to get the country's growing wealth to trickle down.

"Those who own the capital are the ones who are doing better. So, this is also feeding into more income inequality," he said.

  Read more at NPR


China’s President Pushes Back Against Western Culture

From The New York Times

BEIJING — President Hu Jintao of China has said that the West is trying to dominate China by spreading its culture and ideology and that China must strengthen its cultural production to defend against the assault, according to an essay in a Communist Party policy magazine published this week.

Mr. Hu’s words signaled that a major policy initiative announced last October would continue well into 2012.

The essay, which was signed by Mr. Hu and based on a speech he gave in October, drew a sharp line between the cultures of the West and China and effectively said the two sides were engaged in an escalating culture war. It was published in Seeking Truth, a magazine founded by Mao Zedong as a platform for establishing Communist Party principles.

Read in The New York Times

 

Will China Break?

The New York Times, Decemebr 18, 2011

Am I describing Japan at the end of the 1980s? Or am I describing America in 2007? I could be. But right now I’m talking about China, which is emerging as another danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now.

I’ve been reluctant to weigh in on the Chinese situation, in part because it’s so hard to know what’s really happening. All economic statistics are best seen as a peculiarly boring form of science fiction, but China’s numbers are more fictional than most. I’d turn to real China experts for guidance, but no two experts seem to be telling the same story.

Still, even the official data are troubling — and recent news is sufficiently dramatic to ring alarm bells.

The most striking thing about the Chinese economy over the past decade was the way household consumption, although rising, lagged behind overall growth. At this point consumer spending is only about 35 percent of G.D.P., about half the level in the United States.

So who’s buying the goods and services China produces? Part of the answer is, well, we are: as the consumer share of the economy declined, China increasingly relied on trade surpluses to keep manufacturing afloat. But the bigger story from China’s point of view is investment spending, which has soared to almost half of G.D.P.

The obvious question is, with consumer demand relatively weak, what motivated all that investment? And the answer, to an important extent, is that it depended on an ever-inflating real estate bubble. Real estate investment has roughly doubled as a share of G.D.P. since 2000, accounting directly for more than half of the overall rise in investment. And surely much of the rest of the increase was from firms expanding to sell to the burgeoning construction industry.

Do we actually know that real estate was a bubble? It exhibited all the signs: not just rising prices, but also the kind of speculative fever all too familiar from our own experiences just a few years back — think coastal Florida.

And there was another parallel with U.S. experience: as credit boomed, much of it came not from banks but from an unsupervised, unprotected shadow banking system. There were huge differences in detail: shadow banking American style tended to involve prestigious Wall Street firms and complex financial instruments, while the Chinese version tends to run through underground banks and even pawnshops. Yet the consequences were similar: in China as in America a few years ago, the financial system may be much more vulnerable than data on conventional banking reveal.

Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and the world?

Some commentators say not to worry, that China has strong, smart leaders who will do whatever is necessary to cope with a downturn. Implied though not often stated is the thought that China can do what it takes because it doesn’t have to worry about democratic niceties.

To me, however, these sound like famous last words. After all, I remember very well getting similar assurances about Japan in the 1980s, where the brilliant bureaucrats at the Ministry of Finance supposedly had everything under control. And later, there were assurances that America would never, ever, repeat the mistakes that led to Japan’s lost decade — when we are, in reality, doing even worse than Japan did.

For what it’s worth, statements about economic policy from Chinese officials don’t strike me as being especially clear-headed. In particular, the way China has been lashing out at foreigners — among other things, imposing a punitive tariff on imports of U.S.-made autos that will do nothing to help its economy but will help poison trade relations — does not sound like a mature government that knows what it’s doing.

And anecdotal evidence suggests that while China’s government may not be constrained by rule of law, it is constrained by pervasive corruption, which means that what actually happens at the local level may bear little resemblance to what is ordered in Beijing.

I hope that I’m being needlessly alarmist here. But it’s impossible not to be worried: China’s story just sounds too much like the crack-ups we’ve already seen elsewhere. And a world economy already suffering from the mess in Europe really, really doesn’t need a new epicenter of crisis.

Prudent and proactive
China unveils its economic policy for 2012, sort of
From The Economist

AT A ceremony on December 11th to mark the anniversary of China’s admission to the World Trade Organisation a decade ago, President Hu Jintao commemorated “a new historical stage” in the country’s opening up. The next day he and fellow leaders retreated to an army-run guesthouse for a secretive three-day meeting to decide how to run China’s economy in 2012. Their gnomic conclusion: to maintain a “prudent monetary policy” and a “proactive fiscal policy” in the face of an “extremely grim and complicated” global outlook.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) sets the tone for China’s economic policymaking for the next 12 months. Attended by members of the ruling Politburo, government ministers, provincial chiefs, military leaders and heads of banks and other big state-owned companies, secrecy is the watchword. No dates are officially announced in advance, nor even the location (although it is an open secret that it takes place at the heavily guarded Jingxi guesthouse in western Beijing, the Communist Party’s favourite spot for large closed-door gatherings).

This year’s conference, which ended on December 14th, seemed more worried about growth than about price pressures. Inflation is now receding (consumer prices rose by 4.2% in the year to November, after peaking at 6.5% in the summer); and dollar inflows are also slowing, removing one source of extra liquidity. That has allowed the government to cut the amount it tells banks to keep as reserves. Most economists expect it to carry on cutting in the year ahead. Nonetheless, the CEWC chose to describe its monetary policy with the same word (“prudent”) it used last year, when fighting inflation was the priority. It suggests the leaders will cut cautiously.

Read more in
From The Economist

China plans manned moon mission

Nearly 40 years after Nasa last did it, Chinese space agency announces its 'preliminary plan for a human lunar landing'

Read in The Guardian

 

 

China's tomb raiders laying waste to thousands of years of history

Bulldozers and dynamite used to strip priceless artefacts from remote sites, with booty sold on to wealthy collectors

Read in The Guardian

 


China Set to Punish Another Human Rights Activist
BEIJING — First the police crippled Ni Yulan’s legs. Then the authorities took away her license to practice law. Later, while she was serving time in jail, demolition crews tore down the courtyard house that had been in her family for two generations.

Freed from prison in 2010 but unable to walk, she ended up living in a Beijing park with her husband for nearly two months, until unflattering publicity led local officials to move them into a cheap hotel.

Their predicament will most likely take a turn for the worse in the coming weeks, when a court in the capital’s Xicheng district is expected to sentence the couple on charges that include “picking quarrels” and disturbing public order. “I’m afraid the sentence this time will be especially heavy,” their lawyer, Cheng Hai, said after their hearing on Thursday.

The trial of Ms. Ni and her husband, Dong Jiqin, capped a particularly grim year for Chinese dissidents and human rights advocates. In recent weeks, two veteran activists, Chen Wei and Chen Xi, have been given long sentences for essays criticizing the ruling Communist Party. Late last month, the authorities announced that Gao Zhisheng, a prominent rights lawyer, would have to spend an additional three years in prison for violating the terms of his probation.

Unaddressed in the terse official statement was how Mr. Gao, who had spent the previous 20 months in the custody of public security agents, had broken the law.

Although the government has long restricted the work and words of opponents, its tolerance has diminished further since February, when unrest in the Arab world unnerved senior leaders. Dozens of rights lawyers and intellectuals have been detained, countless others have been subjected to heightened police surveillance, and propaganda officials have sought to tighten controls on the Internet.

The artist and critic Ai Weiwei, who disappeared for more than two months, is still battling tax-evasion charges, an accusation he says is designed to silence him.

“The government seems to be going in only one direction, which is more control and harsher punishment against political dissidents,” said Nicholas Bequelin, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. “This is a reflection of the broader atmosphere in China, which is more conservative and hard-line.”

READ IN The new York Times